Chipmaker Nvidia has unveiled plans to revolutionize the robotics sector through what CEO Jensen Huang calls âphysical AI.â The tech giantâs new Cosmos platform will offer free access to AI models trained on 20 million hours of video data. It also unveiled the âGR00T Blueprintââfoundation models for humanoid robotsâalongside new tools for testing factory robots and autonomous vehicles.Â
This from The Wall Street Journal:
Huang showed âphysical AIâ tools that he said would help robots learn using simulated environments that closely mimic the real world. That could bring more automation to warehouses and factories and boost a humanoid-robot market that the company said could be worth $38 billion in the next couple of decades. âThe ChatGPT moment for general robotics is just around the corner,â he said, flanked by a lineup of more than a dozen humanoid robots. He was referencing the explosion of interest in AI following the release of OpenAIâs chatbot more than two years ago.
The Nvidia announcement is another example of how recent AI advancesâincluding machine learning/generative AI and machine visionâhave improved robot perception, decision-making, and adaptability, and may accelerate humanoid robot development. One way to determine where things stand is through the Metaculus forecast platform, which has a number of robotics-related questions and community consensus answers. Among them:
Of course, not everyone is going to welcome a robot revolution. A new Financial Times piece highlights growing tension between labor unions and automation across multiple industries. As companies invest heavily in robotics due to labor shortages and cost pressuresâsome $15 billion since 2019âunions from longshoremen to casino workers are countering with strikes and contract negotiations. They fear job losses, citing examples like how containerization in the 1960s slashed dock worker numbers in New York and New Jersey. Unions are demanding contractual protections like automation bans, mandatory negotiations before implementation, and compensation for displaced workers.Â
Case in point: East and Gulf coast ports just averted a potential strike as the longshoremenâs union and terminal operators reached a tentative agreement. The deal addresses long-time automation concerns by allowing new technology only if it creates additional jobs, while maintaining a ban on fully automated systems. Both Donald Trump and President Joe Biden voiced support for the unionâs position on protecting jobs from automation. (Not all bipartisanship is helpful.)
Given the pace of tech progress, automation anxietyâboth AI and robotsâcould dominate political discourse in the late 2020s (and beyond), much like trade fears have shaped the early part of the decade. And in terms of thinking about public policy here, both government and the private sector have a role. I urge you to check out an interesting essay from Microsoft President Brad Smith, âThe Golden Opportunity for American AI, in which he argues that AI, while disruptive, will create more opportunities than challenges if properly managed. He outlines Microsoftâs commitment to training 2.5 million Americans in AI skills by 2025, emphasizing the crucial role of community colleges, workforce agencies, and rural outreach programs in building a comprehensive national AI âskillingâ infrastructure.Â
The goal is to make AI fluency as common as basic computer literacy. Smith:
Weâre already partnering with the National AI Consortium for Community Colleges to provide industry-aligned AI curriculum. And weâre developing faculty training through AI Bootcamps that will help prepare students with in-demand skills that meet regional workforce needs. Weâve also developed new AI training programs for teachers. And weâre partnering with workforce agencies to enhance AI skills and career guidance through a Microsoft Copilot for Career Navigators initiative, which provides tools to effectively support communities in the AI-driven economy. ⊠AI offers not only new tools for peopleâs work but also new ways to help people learn almost anything. We have the opportunity as a country to equip all Americans with the skills needed to use AI to pursue higher-paying jobs and more successful careers. This should be our national north star.Â
James Pethokoukis
January 17, 2025
aei.org